After a two-year slowdown, tourism is once again booming in the Middle East.
As countries lift their COVID-19 travel restrictions and demand for travel
returns, the World Travel and Tourism Council (WTTC) projects that the sector’s
contribution to regional GDP will grow more than 36 percent in 2022, to more
than $256 billion.
اضافة اعلان
While this is
undoubtedly great news for countries where tourism accounts for the lion’s
share of revenue, there is an existential threat to this tourism rebound:
climate change. The countries most dependent on tourism are also the very
countries most affected by the changing weather.
In Jordan, where
tourism is one of the top earners of foreign currency and the second-largest
private sector employer, accounting for 7.3 percent of pre-pandemic jobs,
drought is exacerbating water scarcity in one of the world’s most water scarce
countries.
Searing heat and
a historic lack of rain are threatening tourist destinations across Jordan. The
Dead Sea, for instance, is shrinking by more than a meter annually, with its
shoreline receding and sinkholes growing. The Dead Sea, which is facing a
reduced flow from its tributary, is rapidly dying.
Climate change
is also contributing to decreased water levels in the Jordan River, where Jesus
was baptized. Today, upstream water diversions have turned the river into a
muddy trickle, much to the chagrin of Christian pilgrims.
It works the
other way, too. In November 2018, rare torrential rains flooded Petra, Jordan’s
prized tourist attraction and a UNESCO world heritage site, forcing the
evacuation of nearly 4,000 tourists. While there were no reported deaths in
Petra, 13 people — including two young girls and a rescue diver — died in other
parts of the country. Two weeks earlier, flooding near the Dead Sea had killed
21 people, mostly children, when their bus was swept away.
In Egypt,
meanwhile, rising temperatures have damaged some of the famed monuments in
Luxor and changed the color of archeological stones. Tourism is the backbone of
Egypt’s economy, and Egypt’s sector is the largest travel and tourism sector in
Africa, according to WTTC.
Fortunately,
Egypt’s coral reefs, which are popular with divers, have so far been spared the
effects of climate change. But extreme weather conditions are expected to
worsen as temperatures climb. Further increases will be life threatening — to
people, flora, and fauna.
The United
Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR) forecasts a 40 percent
increase in the number of weather-related disasters globally over the next
decade. At last month’s “A World for Travel” forum, held in Nimes, France,
Paola Albrito, the new director of UNDRR, estimated that there will be around
560 disasters per year by 2030, and each will be “larger and more expensive”
than what we experience now.
Not only will
these disasters upend the lives of millions; they will also wreak havoc on the
tourist infrastructure where they strike.
The country has made climate-related gains in other areas, too. It has pioneered a 10-year energy strategy for long-term, low-carbon economic growth, and in May 2022, Jordan became the first developing country to build digital tools to track emissions in energy, transport, and agriculture, according to the World Bank.
Current efforts
to mitigate the impact of climate change on the region’s tourism sector are
mixed. On one level, countries have committed to change, with several plans and
strategies addressing green growth and social and environmental sustainability
in the tourism sector.
Jordan, for
example, has a five-year Green Growth National Action Plan for the tourism
sector, which advocates for greener projects and greener investments. The plan
is linked to the UN Sustainable Development Goals to combat climate change.
The country has
made climate-related gains in other areas, too. It has pioneered a 10-year
energy strategy for long-term, low-carbon economic growth, and in May 2022,
Jordan became the first developing country to build digital tools to track
emissions in energy, transport, and agriculture, according to the World Bank.
Jordan is hoping to reduce total emissions by 31 percent by 2030.
Meanwhile, at
the recent UN climate talks in Egypt, regional leaders discussed the need for
the industry itself to reduce its carbon footprint if global emission targets
are to be met.
“The tourism
sector requires a reset,” said Khalida Bouzar, the UNDP’s regional director for
Arab states.
But in other
ways, climate change adaptation and mitigation remain an afterthought in the
Middle East. Again, Jordan’s experience is illustrative. Implementation hinges
on donor support, which is scarce. Jordan’s current national tourism strategy
does not even mention climate change as a key challenge.
Indeed, Jordan
is placing economic priorities ahead of environmental concerns. Case in point:
the government’s plan to allow copper mining in the Dana Biosphere Reserve, the
largest protected area in the country and home to 894 plant species, 190 bird
species, 37 mammal species, and 36 species of reptiles.
For now, climate
change has not put off tourists to the region. The FIFA World Cup, which
started in Qatar last week, is expected to attract more than a million visitors
to the tiny gas-rich Gulf state. Saudi Arabia’s tourism sector is expected to
exceed pre-pandemic levels next year, while the WTCC predicts that tourism will
grow at an average of 11 percent annually by 2030, making it the fastest
growing sector in the Middle East. Even world leaders flocked to Egypt’s
tourist attractions after wrapping up COP27 climate talks.
But before
countries get too comfortable in the post-pandemic tourism rebound, governments
must make the connection between climate change and economic survival. The
Middle East has already seen what a pandemic can do to the tourism industry. We
cannot afford to be burned again.
Suha Ma'ayeh is a journalist based in Amman. Her work has
been published in Foreign Policy and CTC Sentinel. She also reports for The
Wall Street Journal and other publications on Jordan and southern Syria.
Syndication Bureau.
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