Skip to main contentSkip to navigationSkip to key eventsSkip to navigation

Labor claims Aston win, throwing Dutton’s Liberal leadership into question – as it happened

This article is more than 11 months old

Labor’s Mary Doyle has two-party preferred swing of at least 6% in the count on Saturday evening. This blog is now closed

 Updated 
Sat 1 Apr 2023 07.41 EDTFirst published on Fri 31 Mar 2023 17.48 EDT
Mary Doyle and deputy prime minister Richard Marles celebrate Labor’s Aston byelection win with party faithful
Mary Doyle and deputy prime minister Richard Marles celebrate Labor’s Aston byelection win with party faithful. Photograph: Julian Smith/AAP
Mary Doyle and deputy prime minister Richard Marles celebrate Labor’s Aston byelection win with party faithful. Photograph: Julian Smith/AAP

Live feed

Key events

Thank you for following along with us tonight, on what ended up being a historic win for the Labor party.

We will have more news and comment for you very soon, with our chief political corro, Paul Karp, working away as we speak.

We will have more on the fallout tomorrow, so make sure you tune in.

And most importantly – take care of you.

(And a reminder, daylight saving ends in the early hours of Sunday morning –so enjoy your extra hour!)

Share
Updated at 
Liberal candidate Roshena Campbell and opposition leader Peter Dutton at the party’s byelection function. Photograph: Julian Smith/AAP

There are non-stop rumours that Scott Morrison is going to pull the pin very soon, which would mean another byelection in Cook.

NSW is not as big an issue for the Liberal party as Victoria, so there are not quite the same concerns. But there are concerns about what this means for the Liberal party at large.

There are those who point to 2007, when the Liberals were smashed at the polls – and how the Liberals turned that around in two elections. But this is different. The next big election test is not until October 2024 when Queensland will go to the polls. The Palaszczuk government is weighed down by controversy and how long it is in power, but so far the LNP are not looking like they will be guaranteed a win. And that is worrying LNP strategists even at this early stage.

There are rumours that Anthony Albanese will move to capitalise on the Liberals’ issues and go to an early election next year, in order to get a mandate on the stage-three tax cuts. That is just scuttlebutt, but it is growing stronger.

This byelection is going to have ramifications. For Peter Dutton’s leadership (although there doesn’t seem to be any move for a spill, because as more than one Liberal MP said to me tonight “who else would we pick?”), for the voice – Dutton’s soft no doesn’t look like it has electoral support, and for the Liberal party moving forward.

And possibly, if it was smart, the Labor party. Which could take it as a “keep doing what you’re doing” result or, if it showed some forethought, as a push to be a little bolder and braver when it comes to the policies it is offering up.

The electorate is listening. And watching very closely. It would be a brave leader indeed who ignored that.

Share
Updated at 

Tony Barry lays out the problem for the Liberal party moving forward, given that voters born after 1980 are not falling their way and are unlikely to, on current indications.

My concern is gen Y and gen Z, voting for Labor and the Greens becomes habit-forming.

Because of the housing ownership crisis, that generation are reaching historical milestones for conservatism at later ages.

It happens in your 30s as opposed to your 20s, if at all.

When you have something to conserve, you become conservative by nature.

My concern is this democratic bulge is happening and the Liberal party will not be competitive for a very long time to come.

(On the demographics, I have been arguing that for sometime – because you see your friends struggling, you are struggling, you don’t see anything getting better, and people start looking for answers elsewhere.)

Share
Updated at 

The Liberal party strategist Tony Barry speaks a little more plainly here on the ABC panel:

My concern is we have always called Victoria the Massachusetts of the south, and there was always the little oddity in the seat of Melbourne, where the Greens used to give him a big run for his money but he used to win, and then the Greens won and started performing better in other seats. And at the last election they won three seats in Queensland.

As a Queenslander, I am concerned that Victoria is not the Massachusetts of the south, it’s just the leader of the curve, and what we’re seeing in Melbourne demographically … that’s coming out across the rest of the country.

Share
Updated at 
Opposition leader Peter Dutton at the Liberal party byelection function in Melbourne. Photograph: Julian Smith/AAP

Peter Dutton is not doing a postmortem. He seems a lot more reflective – and is jumping ahead to his own leadership. This is not quite Scott Morrison ‘I saw an eagle and knew God was sending me a message’ (nothing ever will be), but it is very much ‘I know how to fight’.

I can tell you this, I have been tenacious from the time I got into politics. I have won in marginal seats for the last 22 years, I don’t give up, and I will make sure that we build this party, particularly here in Victoria, into an election machine by the time we have the 2025 general election, and we will do that for the sake of our country because there are many Australians who are hurting at the moment, many Australians who have been let down by Labor. And the government is in its honeymoon, but they have two-and-a-half years to govern and I believe very strongly we will be in an election-winning position by 2025.

I am very grateful for the support of my colleagues; I have a fantastic team. Nights like tonight are always difficult for all of us and for the Liberal family, for our support base, but the positives that we take away is we will regather and rededicate ourselves and double down on our determination to win the next election for the sake of our country.

Share
Updated at 

Australian voters ‘don’t swing on the fringes’: Liberal strategist’s stark warning after Aston loss

The Liberal party strategist Tony Barry knows the numbers, knows the tracking and knows what the party is facing.

He is being much more realistic about the issues the Liberal party is facing compared to the MPs we have heard from tonight.

This is not a Victorian thing, as Peter Dutton tried to paint it, it is not a Scott Morrison hangover thing, it’s not a negative campaign thing, it is not even a Peter Dutton as leader thing.

It is a generational issue which the Liberal party at large has not cottoned on to as yet. Younger voters control the vote now. Millennials have eclipsed boomers as the biggest generation. They don’t have the same wealth and property to protect as previous generations – in fact, Australia’s most educated generation is about to be the first to not do better than their parents in terms of wealth building – and so, they aren’t getting more conservative as they age, like their parents and grandparents (in the aggregate) did. They are getting more progressive. They are not rusted on voters either, they go by issue. And they understand tactical voting in a way other voters haven’t.

Millennials and Gen Z are motivated, engaged and fed up with the state of the world. They don’t rely on messaging, they rely on what they know about the issues. And so far, the Liberal party hasn’t given them anything to hold on to. And so they are turning away from the culture wars and the targeting of marginal communities and fear campaigns. With a more progressive electorate, there is no such thing as a safe seat.

The same is true for Labor, but it pivoted in time. That same electorate will judge if it is enough at the next election. But the Liberals cannot win with what they are doing.

Barry knows it:

I know a lot of the commentary will focus on Peter. But I will say it is actually more about the problem with the Liberal party, the problem the Liberal party has with the quiet Australians.

The middle Australians out there, quite empathetic, they have moderate views when it comes to social issues, they don’t swing on the fringes, they find all that type of politics quite weird, and the Liberal party has spent the last five, 10 years basically not talking to them.

Share
Updated at 

That was not a speech Mary Doyle expected to be delivering, so she switched that up in the last couple of hours.

But I think we learned a little about Doyle there – she thinks of herself as a suburban mum, she loves her music and she gets emotional about her team and her family.

Share
Updated at 

Oops, no, the people of Aston get the final thank you.

I would like to thank the good people of Aston for putting their trust in me, electing me as their representative, and I want to say I hope I won’t let you down … I promise to do as well as I can for you. Thank you so much.

Share
Updated at 
Mary Doyle speaks to party faithful after claiming victory in Aston as deputy prime minister Richard Marles looks on. Photograph: Julian Smith/AAP

Once the party thank yous are done, Mary Doyle turns to the volunteers and starts to get emotional.

This is the really big one. I can never say thank you enough to our excellent volunteers, who gave up so much of their time, their labour and patience to make sure this area is not taken for granted by the Liberal party. I am so grateful to every ... single person here tonight, especially Russell and Jackie, they have become like family to me.

And then she turns to her children. And that is where the tears start coming.

And to my beautiful kids and great-niece, when I see the things you are doing and the people you are becoming I feel so positive about the future, I really do. You are three great young people, and the whole family, whether they are here, watching from above, I’m incredibly proud of who you all are, and thank you.

Anthony Albanese gets the final thank you.

Finally ... finally, I want to thank the bloke who, like me, was raised Catholic and grew up in public housing and also like me has excellent taste in music, the 31st prime minister of Australia, Anthony Albanese.

Anthony leads a government ... that Australians can truly be proud of, a government that has hit the ground running, trying to fix a decade of problems and neglect and scheming and rorting from the Coalition. A bloke who I am proud to have made over 100 years of history with.

Share
Updated at 

Mary Doyle:

And about an hour ago or so ago, Roshena Campbell did call me and she wished me all the best in my role as the next member for Aston, and she was very gracious and I thank her for that and I wish her all the best.

Doyle moves on to thank her team, Victorian Labor and the federal Labor MPs who have helped her.

I think even our most optimistic true believers knew that I was the underdog this campaign. Even after the excellent result we had at the election last year. What we were trying to do hadn’t been done for 100 years.

And Aston has been Liberal since Sinead O’Connor’s Nothing Compares 2 U was top of the charts way back in 1990, when I was just a slip of a girl at 19.

We were the underdogs, but boy have we shown that we have a big bite.

This is an extraordinary endorsement of the Albanese government’s positive plans for the country and a credit to all your hard work.

And, as I said, the support I received over the past couple of months has just blown me away.

I even had Billy Bragg in one of my T-shirts.

Share
Updated at 

He then introduces the newest Labor MP, Mary Doyle.

Thank you so much, Richard. What an excellent deputy prime minister. Victoria thanks you.

You guys, wow.

I’m Mary Doyle. I like to be humble still. I’m a suburban mum and I’ve lived in the outer eastern suburbs for more than 35 years and as of tonight, I guess I’ll be your next member for Aston!

Share
Updated at 

Richard Marles thanks the Victorian Labor team and volunteers for, among other things, knocking on “deer” (he means doors, but it’s been a big day for Marles and I don’t think his nervous system is used to so much adrenaline).

Of course, tonight is a huge endorsement of our prime minister, Anthony Albanese. ... Albo is a great guy. I know it, but the Australian people know as well.

And it is my great honour as his deputy to see each and every day it up close, and have one thing on his mind and that is how can he advance the interests of the Australian people. That is the inspiration for every one of us who are a member of his government. And we are so lucky to have the opportunity to serve the Australian people as members of the Albanese Labor government.

Share
Updated at 

Richard Marles turns to Mary Doyle’s win:

There are ... precious few moments where you get to be in the presence of history.

So soak it up.

Not since the 1920 Kalgoorlie byelection has a sitting government won a seat from an opposition in a byelection. But tonight Mary Doyle has done just that.

Can I acknowledge Roshena Campbell. It is a great honour to represent a major party in contesting the federal seat and Roshena has done that with dignity.

There is applause.

Share
Updated at 

Labor's Mary Doyle claims victory in Aston byelection

“We bloody did it,” yells a supporter as Mary Doyle steps up on the stage with Richard Marles.

Marles opens on the voice:

Can I start by acknowledging the traditional owners of the land on which we meet to pay my respects to elders past and present. And say that I and Mary are deeply proud to be a part of a government which is committed to introducing the Uluru statement from the heart.

We are going to work ... tirelessly to see recognition of our First Nations people through a voice to parliament referendum later this year and when that happens it will be one of the great unifying moments for our nation.

Mary Doyle and Richard Marles celebrate Labor’s byelection win with party faithful at Boronia Bowls Club in Melbourne. Photograph: Julian Smith/AAP
Share
Updated at 

Mary Doyle has entered the Aston byelection party alone and to massive cheers.

She looks a little shellshocked.

Roshena Campbell thanks her friends in the Liberal party and the campaign, as well as her volunteers, before moving to her family.

I want to ... thank my husband James [Campbell, of the Herald Sun]. It’s not easy being married to a candidate but it is the greatest privilege to walk through this life with him.

To my parents, whose sacrifice has always been extraordinary but particularly over these past weeks, and my children, James, Beatrix and Alexandra. Like so many, I put my hand up to serve because I want to make this country better for you, and all of our children.

I will always be proud to be a Liberal and always be proud to be Australian because we live in the greatest country in the world.

Tonight, I congratulate Mary and I congratulate the Labor party, but for me, and our party, the Liberal party, there is only one thing to do – we will fight on.

Roshena Campbell concedes defeat in the Aston byelection as opposition leader Peter Dutton looks on. Photograph: Julian Smith/AAP
Share
Updated at 

Most viewed

Most viewed