The UAE’s War on Democracy: Middle East Shifts Toward Pragmatism Amid Regional Rivalries
As the Middle East undergoes geopolitical shifts, the UAE remains a staunch opponent of democratic movements, while regional leaders focus on economic growth and strategic cooperation to reshape the region’s future.
Watan-The United Arab Emirates (UAE) has been labeled as an opponent of any form of democracy in the Middle East, with a track record of suppressing democratic movements under the pretext of preventing Islamist rule.
A recent analysis of geopolitical shifts in the Middle East highlights that while regional leaders are increasingly adopting pragmatic policies, the path to stability remains long and complex.
The report notes that numerous failed attempts to establish a “New Middle East” have led to significant bloodshed, but current indicators suggest the region may be transitioning toward a different geopolitical reality.
Shifting Dynamics in the Middle East
The recent war between Iran and Israel has influenced regional leaders’ perspectives, making them more open to the idea that ongoing conflicts do not align with their grand strategies or national interests. This evolving understanding is gradually shaping a new Middle East.
However, this transformation is far from easy. The war in Sudan serves as a stark example of how regional rivalries can escalate into full-scale conflicts, similar to what has been seen in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Palestine, Yemen, Libya, and Tunisia in recent years.
The analysis also points out that countries such as the UAE continue to resist democratic change, fearing that it could lead to Islamist governance. Meanwhile, Israel and Iran have perfected the art of using proxy battlegrounds to expand their influence.
While these geopolitical dynamics will not change overnight, some events indicate a shift toward economic development through regional cooperation. These changes represent a significant departure from the turbulence of the Arab Spring era, where authoritarian regimes aggressively resisted demands for political transformation.
The Gaza War and Regional Pragmatism
The October 7 attacks by Hamas further accelerated the shift toward “harsh pragmatism.” Despite initial concerns that the war in Gaza could trigger a larger regional conflict, the level of escalation remained below the worst-case scenarios, largely due to Middle Eastern leaders abandoning zero-sum policies.
Military cooperation has also emerged as a sign of this pragmatic shift. In recent years, Turkey has engaged in defense and economic agreements with Saudi Arabia and the UAE. This partnership has led to Gulf investments in Turkey’s struggling economy, while Ankara has provided advanced military technology and equipment, filling gaps left by U.S. restrictions under the Biden administration.
Challenges to Regional Stability
Despite these evolving alliances, the Middle East remains far from complete stability. No two countries in the region fully align on all issues. Saudi Arabia and the UAE continue to compete aggressively in economic and investment sectors, while the rivalry between Riyadh and Tehran persists despite recent diplomatic overtures and their renewed stance in support of Palestine.
Similarly, Turkey’s expanding influence—especially in post-Assad Syria—has led to accusations of “neo-Ottoman ambitions.”
A New Middle East?
While positive changes take time, regional leaders seem increasingly focused on a future built on economic growth, trade cooperation, and political stability. If they commit to this direction, they could usher in a new era for the Middle East—one defined by development rather than conflict.
