Sixteen of the 25 major carbon emitting countries, including the United States, Australia, Canada and the EU nations (counted together) are not on track to achieve their Paris pledges, says a new global report released in Germany on Wednesday.
Sphere featuring flags of countries of the world displayed at the pavillion of India during the COP23 United Nations Climate Change Conference in Bonn. (AFP photo)
BONN: Sixteen of the 25 major carbon emitting countries, including the United States, Australia, Canada and the EU nations (counted together) are not on track to achieve their Paris pledges, says a new global report released in Germany on Wednesday. The report, based on scientific analysis of what all the top 25 emitters have been doing to cut their emissions, has noted that only nine of these countries, including India and China, are "on track to achieve or even overachieve their self-determined unconditional" targets.
This new report by the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) and two other institutions including New Climate Institute provides an overview of projected greenhouse gas emissions in 25 major emitting countries\region up to 2030, taking into account the emission trajectories based on current policies and the implementation of their nationally determined contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement.
The report, while highlighting how most developed countries were falling short, attributed their poor record on the higher commitments made. It noted that a country likely to meet its NDC was not necessarily undertaking more stringent action on mitigation than a country which is not on track, as this depends on the ambition level for the nationally determined target, and because countries have different policy-making approaches.
"Nevertheless, as countries are adopting implementation measures, it is essential that the gaps between mitigation targets and current policy trajectories begin to close, in the years to come", it said while noting that the new study would provide useful information for the facilitative dialogue next year.
Though the NDCs are meant for actions under the Paris Agreement post-2020, it is important for countries to finetune their current policy trajectories so that they can achieve their individual targets and a common goal to keep the average global temperature rise below 2 degree Celsius by the end of this century.
The report comes two days after India questioned the developed countries on their sluggish record during pre-2020 commitment period under the Kyoto Protocol. India reminded the rich nations of their previous commitment on the inaugural day of the climate conference (COP23) on Monday and sought them to walk the talk.
Besides India and China, the other countries who are roughly on track to achieve their Paris pledges include Brazil, Colombia, Japan, Mexico, Russia, Ukraine and Turkey. The countries that require additional measures to achieve their targets are: Argentina, Australia, Canada, Chile, Congo, Ethiopia, the EU, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Morocco, South Korea, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Thailand, Philippines and USA.
The IIASA report also noted that the greenhouse gas emissions in Brazil, Canada, Colombia, Russia and Ukraine are projected to remain stable, approximately at current levels, with currently implemented policies. "In Japan and the EU, greenhouse gas emissions are projected to decrease further, under current policies", it said.
This report has, in fact, substantiated what the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) had on October 31 said in its ‘Emission Gap Report’. It had said that the national pledges on emission reduction, made by countries from across the globe under the Paris Agreement, will only bring a third of what is needed to avoid the worst impact.
Though the UNEP did not flag country-specific details, it noted that even full implementation of current unconditional and conditional national climate actions by all countries together will make a temperature increase of at least 3 degree Celsius by 2100 — meaning that the governments need to deliver much stronger pledges when they are revised in 2020.
The UN environment body, meanwhile, on Wednesday came out with a report on adaptation issues. The report called Adaptation Gap Report, also noted that the developing countries would need $140 billion to $300 billion per year by 2030 to adapt themselves for facing the impact of global warming.
